Virtual Water - A Potential Solution?

There are some academics whom posit that the primary reason for the lack of water conflict is due to the economic system of trading basic staple goods (such as wheat) which operate to advantage of water and food deficit countries (Allan, 1997; Le Heron, 1995). What I want to consider in this post is whether it is a viable solution to water shortages within the Nile basin in the future?

A highly influential paper by Allan (1997) certainly makes this claim, highlighting that “more water ‘flows’ into the Middle East each year as ‘virtual water’ than flows down the Nile into Egypt for agriculture” is the solution to the transboundary water issue within the Nile Basin. The paper also goes far to emphasises a perception change is necessary and this will lead to a policy change that will actively implement the idea of virtual water.

Allan makes some really interesting points about perceptions and how this has actively worked against effective policy solutions to water shortage in North Africa and the Middle East. He also goes to define what “sufficient” means to different actors and how varying interpretations has led to a lack of scientific imperative. This provides an interesting framework with which to look at why effective policies have been few and far between in managing the Nile’s resources sustainably. The basic claim he makes is a lack of blue water in North Africa could be accounted for by green water in humid regions which is generally taken for granted. The analysis provided in this paper emphasises the need to look on an international scale, not merely national or basinwide which it criticises its neglect of the market. He highlights that national economies operate within international systems and that transboundary water issues should be considered in “problemsheds” and not just within the hydrological boundaries (watersheds). I believe the key points made by Allan are important, integration and effective use of virtual water could be important in the future for ensuring water and food security within the Nile basin. Instead of large scale irrigation that operates primarily in Egypt, these products could be imported saving substantial amounts of water that would be better used for domestic consumption. Since 69% of water is used for agriculture and only 13% for domestic purposes a shift in the priorities of the Nile’s water towards domestic consumption could resolve insecurity over access to clean safe water especially when in the face of climate change and population growth.

“it is economic systems and not hydrological and water engineering systems which achieve water security for the economies of the region.”

The main issue with an argument such as this one is the neglect of social aspects. By thinking about economical solutions such as with virtual water one ignores the existing reason for widespread agriculture within Egypt: sustaining livelihoods and a rich cultural and historical background of staple production within the region. If virtual water was a potential solution for the Nile issue, who decides who has the right to use Nile waters and who should import to offset the water demands of production? Further to this, why should agricultural production be lowered in priority due to alternatives when technically speaking there are also alternatives to the hydroelectric interests of Ethiopia, such as solar energy which could be feasible in this region. I feel it is optimistic to make the claim that virtual water is the solution to water resource conflict in the future, though I do see its value in offsetting the demands placed on the Nile’s water by large scale agriculture