The Great Renaissance Dam

A very current ongoing area of debate and tension is the prospect of the Grand Renaissance Dam (or the Millennium Dam as it is sometimes referred to). The dam is currently under production and seeks to bring hydroelectric power to Ethiopia by harnessing Blue Nile's waters. Upon completion, the dam will be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa, and as expected Egypt has been strongly against the project as it believes the dam will reduce water temporarily with the filling of the dam and with the effects of long term evaporative losses. Further tho this there could lead to a permanent lowering of water levels in Lake Nasser which on one hand would reduce the evaporative losses from the body of water but will also reduce the ability of the Aswan High Dam to produce hydropower.

Dialogue between concerned Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt has been ongoing for the last 5 years and has been tumultuous at best. Beginning with an International Panel of Experts to review and assess the impacts of the dam, data sharing and collaborative efforts looked to mirror positives of Integrated Water Resources Management, however reports produced by Ethiopia and Egypt ended up differing, in reflection of their interests. In 2013 tensions reached new heights when Egyptian political leaders unknowingly discussed methods on television to destroy the dam whilst discussing the International Panel of Experts report mentioned above with President Morsi. After the meeting Morsi highlighted the embarrassment and promoted "good neighbourliness" however not ruling out conflict in a later speech as "Egypt's water security cannot be violated at all."

After numerous cessations of talks then renegotiating according to some reports an agreement may be reached "on some points" very soon. The most recent talks that have occurred this month, with technical talks taking place the last few days, with reported agreements on studying the impacts of the dam. So after 10 rounds of talks over the past 2 years, it seems that there may be some agreements in principal on the horizon for the project. However, given the up and down nature of talks over the past few years it would be good not to get too optimistic.

This case demonstrates the fragility of relations between the riparian nations, especially Egypt and any country that threatens its water supply from the Nile. It further exemplifies that cooperation is possible but that it occurs over a very lengthy and strenuous amount of time, with conflict still being an outside possibility.